Game 163 of the 2013 season will include only two teams, the Texas Rangers and the Tampa Bay Rays. Although it is considered game 163 of the regular season, this game is without a doubt a playoff game. Regular season games are not win or go home, but game 163 is.
If this was year 2011 or earlier, both Tampa Bay and Texas would be going home for the season with nothing to show for it, but instead, with the 2012 inclusion of a second wild card team, both Tampa and Texas will get a shot for postseason play as both teams finished with a 91-71 record. Whoever wins this “regular season game” will travel to Cleveland to take on the Indians in another one-game playoff on Wednesday October 2. In the next one-game playoff, which is actually a “playoff game,” the winner will finally make it to series play against the Boston Red Sox.
Game 163 of the Regular Season
Monday, September 30
Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers
Tampa Bay Starting Pitcher: David Price, 9-8 with a 3.39 ERA this season (No starts v. Texas this year)
Texas Rangers Starting Pitcher: Martin Perez, 10-5 with a 3.55 ERA this season (No starts v. Tampa Bay this year)
Tampa Bay X-Factor: Fernando Rodney, 37 saves with a 3.38 ERA this season (0.00 ERA and 1 save in two games against Texas this year)
Texas Rangers X-Factor: Nelson Cruz, .269 AVG, .330 OBP, 27 HR, and 76 RBI in 108 games (.100 AVG, 0 HR, 0 RBI in 10 ABs v Tampa Bay this year)
Projection: Adrian Beltre has an abysmal .192 batting average with no home runs this year against Tampa Bay. In the past, Texas would be able to overcome that with other boppers in the middle of the order, but Josh Hamilton who left to for the Los Angeles Angels through free agency last offseason is not there, and Nelson Cruz is just getting off a 50 game suspension for violating the league’s substance abuse policy.The Rangers are 17-24 this year in games that Adrian Beltre plays but does not record a hit.
Cruz will be the true x-factor in this game, because this will be just his first game back from suspension. If Cruz is rusty at all in this one, all it would take is an 0-3 in the middle of the Rangers lineup to sink their chances at the Wild Card game. With Cruz back, the Rangers season will be on his bat. It will all depend on if he is rusty from no games played since July, but if Cruz is on his game, the Rays and David Price could be in trouble.
The starting pitching advantage without a doubt goes to Tampa Bay in this one. David Price is the reigning Cy Young award winner, versus Martin Perez, the second-year player from Venezuela. As good as Perez has been this year (3.55 ERA) playoff baseball is completely different from regular season baseball. A 22-year old with a grand total of 25 starts this year is at a massive disadvantage to a Cy Young pitcher who has World Series pitching experience, though it was as a reliever.
In a single game with fresh arms in the bullpen, relief pitching advantage would go to the Rangers. Texas has three relievers who have pitched in 50 or more games with an ERA less than 2.00. Tanner Scheppers (second-year pitcher with a 1.93 ERA this season), Joe Nathan (12-year veteran with a 1.41 ERA this season and 43 saves), and their lefty Neal Cotts (1.13 ERA; 33-year old pitcher who is pitching in the MLB for the first time since 2009).
On the other hand, Tampa Bay does not have any relievers who have 50 or more games pitched and an ERA less than 3.00. The Rays will be hoping for Price to turn in a gem in this game, because their top three relievers are three guys who each have an ERA of 3.38 or higher. Rodney is the Rays closer, and is the one with the 3.38 ERA, but also has eight blown saves this year, which is the second most in the MLB this year. Joel Peralta has been the Rays second best reliever. Peralta is another righty who is now 37 years old and has a career ERA of 3.84. The last reliever of the “main three” is Jake McGee, who is their lefty in the pen. McGee has a 4.02 ERA this year, which is inflated above his career ERA of 3.24.
Price will do what he does best and will be able to go deep into this game, and chances are, he will single handedly keep it close. The key to this game will be if the Rays are able to run second year man Martin Perez out of the game early. Rangers Ballpark in Arlington (Texas’ home field) is traditionally a good hitters ballpark, and the Rays will be able to take advantage of a young pitcher there.
Texas may have a better top of the rotation, but with their ace, Yu Darvish not being able to impact this game because he just pitched on Sunday, their season will be up a 22-year old kid. The Rays will be able to leave it up to their ace who will have the game in his hands, and be able to lead them into the AL Wild Card game.
Winner: Tampa Bay Rays
